September was the market's worst month since June. October is historically its most volatile. Q3 earnings season starts now. The Fed meets again October 27–28. And there are things worth paying close attention to heading into the fall. Here's how we see it.
We Look for Cracks. We Look for Opportunities.
Our job isn't just to report what happened. It's to look underneath the headlines and figure out what's actually going on — and whether it's a warning sign or an opening. Sometimes it's both at the same time.
The S&P 500 closed September at 7,696 — down from its August all-time high of 7,816, finishing its worst month since June. The bond market had one of its worst quarters in years. The 10-year Treasury is at a 19-year high. The 30-year hit levels not seen since 2002. When yields move that broadly across the long end of the curve at once, it's worth understanding what the bond market is pricing in.
Core PCE came in softer than expected. The government tripled its bond buyback program. Yields went up anyway. When the data moves in an unexpected direction despite policy responses, we take that as a signal to look a little deeper. That's just good practice.
The Fed in October
The Fed meets October 27–28. Odds of another hike are above 65% — a number that was essentially zero just three months ago. Fed Governor Barr said last week they "still have more work to do" even after September's increase.
What we're watching isn't just whether they hike. It's the language around what comes after. The dot plot from September already signals rates staying elevated through 2027. If October reinforces that — and the incoming jobs report and September CPI give them cover — we're in a higher-for-longer environment that most financial plans weren't built for.
October — what history tells us
→ Most volatile month of the year — 95 years of data confirms it
→ Also the most frequent month for bear market bottoms — six since 1950
→ Q3 earnings season begins — estimates have come down enough that beats are achievable
→ FOMC meets October 27–28 — second to last meeting of 2026
→ Volatility cuts both ways. We're positioned for both.
Something We've Been Watching: The 2007 Parallels
We've been keeping a running list of things that look familiar — not because history repeats exactly, but because the patterns rhyme closely enough to warrant attention.
Earlier this year, Blue Owl Capital — one of the largest names in private credit — permanently restricted withdrawals from one of its retail-focused debt funds. Investors who thought they owned a relatively liquid product discovered otherwise when they tried to get their money out. Shares of Blackstone, KKR, Ares, and Carlyle all dropped as the concern spread. Jamie Dimon said private credit risks were "hiding in plain sight." Jeffrey Gundlach compared conditions in private credit to 2006 — the year before the mortgage market broke.
The private credit market has grown to over $1.8 trillion largely outside the regulatory framework that governs banks and public bond markets. Valuations in many of these funds are model-derived estimates, not observable market prices — which means nobody fully knows what things are worth until someone tries to sell. That's not an alarm. It's just worth understanding if you or your retirement account has exposure to private credit vehicles.
Continuing to watch
We're also monitoring the off-balance-sheet AI financing structures we've covered in previous issues — obligations the major tech companies carry for AI infrastructure buildout that don't show up on their balance sheets. With rates rising, the combination of opaque private credit and hidden tech leverage is something we continue to watch closely.
We're not raising alarm bells — we're doing what good advisors do, which is watch the leading indicators before they become headlines.
The Opportunity Side
There is one. Short-term rates at 5%+ are the highest in fifteen years. Cash is finally earning real money. Short-duration bonds and floating rate instruments are capturing today's elevated yields without the price risk of long maturities. For clients who've had cash sitting in low-yielding accounts — this environment rewards doing something about it.
We're not waiting to see which way October breaks. We think about both sides — what could go wrong and where the opportunities might emerge — and we help clients think through what that means for their specific situation. That's what proactive advice looks like.
Year-end is three months away. Tax planning windows are closing. Business owners who want to act before December need to start those conversations now — not in November.
If you want to refresh your plan or strategy, or know someone who needs to have theirs reviewed, let's schedule a time to visit. Just reply to this email or call me directly.
01 — Wealth Transfer
The Decision You're Already Making
An estimated $84 trillion in assets will pass between generations through 2045. It is happening in Texas families right now, quietly, whether plans are in place or not. Wealth will transfer — the question is whether it goes the way you intend or by default, on the government's terms.
Preparing to give: The 2026 estate tax exemption is $15 million per individual, $30 million per couple. Annual gifting of $19,000 per recipient carries no gift tax implications. These tools require intentional use — and the planning window is always shorter than it feels.
Preparing to receive: Inheriting wealth is one of the most consequential financial events a person can experience — and almost no one prepares for it. Tax treatment, investment decisions, family dynamics, and integration with your own plan all arrive at once.
If a wealth transfer is anywhere on your horizon — let's talk now, before the clock is ticking.
02 — Estate Documents
The Ones Gathering Dust
Wills, trusts, powers of attorney, healthcare directives, and beneficiary designations are not set-it-and-forget-it. A few things worth checking this fall:
→ Beneficiary designations — they override your will
→ Power of attorney — does it reflect who you'd want today?
→ Your trust — properly funded? An unfunded trust does nothing
→ Guardian for minor children — still the right person?
We work alongside estate attorneys we trust and can help you identify the gaps — then connect you with the right people to close them.
03 — Insurance
The Coverage People Assume Is Fine
Property values have risen sharply — meaning many homeowners are now underinsured relative to what it would cost to rebuild. Life insurance from your thirties may no longer reflect your current obligations or net worth.
A review doesn't commit you to anything. It just tells you where you actually stand.
04 — Business Owners
The Exit You Haven't Planned
If you own a business, it is likely your largest asset — and also the least liquid and least planned for. Year-end is when buy-sell agreements, business valuations, and succession conversations need to happen if they're going to affect your 2026 tax picture.
We work with trusted business brokers, M&A advisors, and transaction attorneys. Reach out now — not in December.
05 — The Everyday Things
That Add Up More Than People Think
Second opinions. If you have an account somewhere else and wondered whether you're getting the right advice, the right fees, or the right approach — bring it to us. No strings attached.
Mineral rights & energy income. With oil above $100 and royalty values shifting, now is a good time to make sure your energy income is properly integrated into your overall financial picture.
Concentrated positions. One stock, one property, one business — heading into a volatile October, concentration is a risk worth managing carefully and strategically.
Cash management. Rates at 5%+ mean your idle cash finally has real options. If it's sitting somewhere earning less than it should — that's an easy problem to fix right now.
Retirement income planning. Higher-for-longer rates change the sequencing and distribution strategy for anyone near or in retirement. That conversation is worth having now — not after the FOMC meets.
Who We Are and Who We Know
High Ridge Advisory is an independent, fiduciary wealth management practice in McKinney, Texas. We are not tied to any product, platform, or institution. Our only obligation is to you. We work with business owners, executives, energy families, landowners, and individuals navigating significant financial decisions.
Our services include
• Comprehensive financial planning • Investment management
• Retirement income & distribution • Estate & legacy planning
• Wealth transfer planning • Mineral rights & energy counsel
• Business transition & exit planning • Tax strategy coordination
• Insurance & risk review • Second opinion & portfolio review
Our network spans
If you have a need — financial or otherwise — and you're not sure who to call, call us first. If we can't help directly, we almost certainly know who can.
That's what it means to have an advisor, not just an account.
Jay Madden
Founder & Lead Advisor · High Ridge Advisory
972.632.5700
james@highridgeadvisory.com
208 E. Louisiana St., Ste. 301 · McKinney, TX
"I answer my own phone."
Investment Advisory Services offered through Csenge Advisory Group, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. High Ridge Advisory is not affiliated with Csenge Advisory Solutions. This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market data referenced reflects publicly available information as of October 1, 2026.